Posted March 16, 2013

Bracket Watch: Will Duke Drop To A No. 2 Seed?

Bracket Watch, Bubble Watch, conference tournaments, March Madness, NCAA Tournament
Duke could lose its No. 1 seed after a 83-74 ACC tournament loss to Maryland. (Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

Duke could lose its No. 1 seed after a 83-74 ACC tournament loss to Maryland. (Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

The final at-large spot is wide open. Mississippi may have the edge heading into Saturday’s play, but it’s unclear whether they can hold onto that spot given then play Vandy in the SEC semifinals. That game is no help to them, so at best, this is the profile Ole Miss would present as an at-large with a loss in the SEC final. If other teams win another game or there’s a bid thief, the Rebels will need the auto bid.

There’s also a lot of intrigue building around the No. 1 seeds. Twitter was abuzz with the chance that Duke would drop to a 2-seed after losing to Maryland in the ACC quarterfinals. I find that extremely unlikely. Even including the games missed by Ryan Kelly, Duke was the No.1 RPI and No. 1 SOS team in the country. They also have 12 top-50 and 17 top-100 wins. I suppose if Indiana, Louisville and Kansas all win their league championships, we can revisit, but I find it more likely Gonzaga would be squeezed to the 2-seed line, not the Blue Devils.

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2013 NCAA Tournament Bracket

EAST (Washington, D.C.) MIDWEST (Indianapolis)
Philadelphia Dayton
1. Duke 1. Indiana* (Big Ten)
16. Liberty * (Big South)/Morgan State* (MEAC) 16. Southern* (SWAC)/ LIU Brooklyn* (Northeast)
8. Illinois 8. Oregon
9. Colorado 9. San Diego State
San Jose Austin
5. Oklahoma State 5. Saint Louis* (Atlantic 10)
12. Belmont* (Ohio Valley) 12. Saint Mary’s/Tennessee
4. Syracuse 4. Marquette
13. South Dakota State* (Summit) 13. Akron* (MAC)
Austin Auburn Hills
6. Butler 6. Pittsburgh
11. Oklahoma 11. California
3. Florida* (SEC) 3. Michigan State
14. New Mexico State* (WAC) 14. Iona* (MAAC)
Salt Lake City Lexington
7. Notre Dame 7. Colorado State
10. Minnesota 10. Iowa State
2. New Mexico* (Mountain West) 2. Miami (Fla.)* (ACC)
15. Pacific* (Big West) 15. Vermont* (America East)
SOUTH (Arlington, TX) WEST (Los Angeles)
Lexington Salt Lake City
1. Louisville* (Big East) 1. Gonzaga* (West Coast)
16. James Madison* (Colonial) 16. Western Kentucky* (Sun Belt)
8. North Carolina State 8. Memphis* (Conference USA)
9. Missouri 9. Cincinnati
San Jose Kansas City
5. Wisconsin 5. UCLA* (Pac-12)
12. La Salle/Mississippi 12. Bucknell* (Patriot)
4. Arizona 4. Kansas State
13. Davidson* (SoCon) 13. Valparaiso* (Horizon)
Auburn Hills Dayton
6. VCU 6. UNLV
11. Boise State 11. Temple
3. Michigan 3. Ohio State
14. Harvard* (Ivy) 14. Stephen F. Austin* (Southland)
Kansas City Philadelphia
7. Creighton* (Missouri Valley) 7. North Carolina
10. Villanova 10. Wichita State
2. Kansas* (Big 12) 2. Georgetown
15. Montana* (Big Sky) 15. Florida Gulf Coast* (Atlantic Sun)

*Designated auto-bid winners from each conference. Auto bids are determined by team with the best RPI of those with the fewest league losses.

Last four in: Tennessee, La Salle, Saint Mary’s, Mississippi
Last four out: Virginia, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Middle Tennessee State

New at-large teams in: Mississippi
Old at-large teams out: Kentucky

Bids by conference: Big East (8); Big Ten (7); Pac-12, Mountain West, Big 12 and Atlantic 10 (5); ACC, SEC (4); Missouri Valley and West Coast (2)

1 comments
kilgore_nobiz
kilgore_nobiz

New Mexico as a #2 over Ohio State, really?  OSU beat Michigan State twice and Indiana on the road in three of its last four games.  Just exactly who has New Mexico beaten in their entire season as good as any of those teams?  I'm waiting.