Posted March 17, 2013

Bracket Watch: Which Teams Will Be The First Four?

Bracket Watch, Bubble Watch, Selection Sunday
Marshall Henderson has helped catapult Ole Miss's stock during the SEC Tournement. [Dave Martin/AP]

Marshall Henderson has helped catapult Ole Miss’s stock during the SEC Tournement. [Dave Martin/AP]

It’s Selection Sunday! After a long, four-month march, we’re now at the best day of March. Briefly, there were interesting decisions both at the top of the bracket and at the cutline. I ultimately went with Louisville as my No. 1 overall seed, a smidge ahead of Indiana, but if the committee goes the other way, that’s perfectly understandable. Same with Duke and Kansas at Nos. 3 and 4. Gonzaga, a lot of people’s choice to be a 1-seed, doesn’t have the overall resume strength of those four, and it’s questionable whether they’re even ahead of New Mexico. That said, if Gonzaga gets a 1, good for them. The Bulldogs are a very strong team and it would be good for smaller-conference hoops.

The cutline discussion is about as dull as any year in recent memory. It feels like there’s even a pretty significant gap between La Salle and Mississippi and the other two First Four teams. What that means is it comes down to three teams for two spots: Tennessee, Saint Mary’s and Middle Tennessee State. The Vols get in thanks to the quality of their wins. Flip a coin for the “good team/empty profile” final spot, although the Gaels’ resume is basically a stronger proxy of the Blue Raiders’.

We’ll see if anything that happens on Sunday afternoon changes the final picture, but this is how things stand right now.

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2013 NCAA Tournament Bracket

EAST (Washington, D.C.) MIDWEST (Indianapolis)
Dayton Lexington
1. Indiana 1. Louisville* (Big East)
16. Liberty *(Big South)/LIU Brooklyn* (Northeast) 16. NC A&T* (MEAC)/ James Madison* (CAA)
8. Colorado State 8. North Carolina
9. Missouri 9. Colorado
Kansas City Austin
5. Saint Louis* (Atlantic 10) 5. Oklahoma State
12. Tennessee/Saint Mary’s 12. La Salle/Boise State
4. Marquette 4. Wisconsin
13. Davidson* (SoCon) 13. South Dakota State* (Summit)
Auburn Hills Austin
6. Notre Dame 6. VCU
11. Mississippi* (SEC) 11. San Diego State
3. Michigan 3. Florida
14. Montana* (Big Sky) 14. Iona* (MAAC)
Lexington Dayton
7. Oregon* (Pac-12) 7. Creighton* (Missouri Valley)
10. Temple 10. Villanova
2. Miami (Fla.)* (ACC) 2. Ohio State* (Big Ten)
15. Albany* (America East) 15. Florida Gulf Coast* (Atlantic Sun)
SOUTH (Arlington, TX) WEST (Los Angeles)
Philadelphia Kansas City
1. Duke 1. Kansas* (Big 12)
16. Western Kentucky* (Sun Belt) 16. Southern* (SWAC)
8. Illinois 8. North Carolina State
9. Cincinnati 9. Minnesota
San Jose San Jose
5. UCLA 5. Arizona
12. Belmont* (Ohio Valley) 12. Akron* (MAC)
4. Kansas State 4. Syracuse
13. Bucknell* (Patriot) 13. New Mexico State* (WAC)
Philadelphia Auburn Hills
6. Butler 6. UNLV
11. California 11. Oklahoma
3. Georgetown 3. Michigan State
14. Harvard* (Ivy) 14. Valparaiso* (Horizon)
Salt Lake City Salt Lake City
7. Memphis* (Conference USA) 7. Pittsburgh
10. Iowa State 10. Wichita State
2. New Mexico* (Mountain West) 2. Gonzaga* (West Coast)
15. Pacific* (Big West) 15. Northwestern State* (Southland)

*Designated auto-bid winners from each conference.

Note: Villanova/Colorado and Cincinnati/Wichita State switched 9/10 seeds to satisfy bracketing rules.

Last four in: La Salle, Mississippi, Tennessee, Saint Mary’s
Last four out: Middle Tennessee State, Virginia, Kentucky, Maryland

New at-large teams in: None
Old at-large teams out: None

Bids by conference: Big East (8); Big Ten (7); Pac-12, Mountain West, Big 12 and Atlantic 10 (5); ACC, SEC (4); Missouri Valley and West Coast (2)

37 comments
AndyGlockner
AndyGlockner moderator

Oh well. I got the Tennessee/MTSU coin flip wrong, but was tied for the best of any bracket projection with 63 of 68 teams within 1 seed line. I'll take it. Thanks for following all year.

StatJunkie
StatJunkie

Just a few minutes away!  See how Gloeckner stacks up vs Palm at CBS vs Lunardi at ESPN vs StatJunkie at http:statjunkie.org.  Each bracketologist has a few different picks http://statjunkie.org

scBlais
scBlais

So Miami splits their series with Duke, 1-1.  They win the league title.  They win the tournament title.  But Duke is going to get a higher seed?

Not saying Miami should be a #1 seed, but they should be above Duke!

ChrisMiller
ChrisMiller

Are you @#$%ing kidding me?

Duke is barely hanging into the top ten now.

Indiana has fallen flat on their faces.

AND you give the #1 ranked team in the nation a 2 seed?


I don't know what you've been smoking, but you clearly need to stop.


StatJunkie
StatJunkie

We will be updating our final statistical March Madness picks alongside Jerry Palm's, Joe Lunardi, and Andy Gloeckner's, live as they're announced during the Selection Sunday show.  We've been as, or more accurate than all of the above in the past, and you can see how accurate everyone's predictions acutally were. http://statjunkie.org

BrownTrout
BrownTrout

Boise State is a lock for a 11 seed....all other analysts say so......yet Glockner still has them as a play-in 12 . Amazing.

Todd_Jarman
Todd_Jarman

At least you got it right on how the committee will vote where DUKE the weakest (and undeserving) #1 seed gets the easy bracket to the final four.

aboehm15
aboehm15

Albany out of the Big West? Do you even lift?

Rusty1
Rusty1

Once again, Indiana does not deserve a # 1 seed.  The big 10 is over rated plus they are  3 - 3 in their last 6 games. Please tell Seth Davis it is Kelly O lin ick.  O O O O  not A A A.  :) 

AndyGlockner
AndyGlockner moderator

OK, the bracket should be posted in its intended form now. Refresh the page if you still see the previous version. Thanks.

Mike Ridenhour
Mike Ridenhour

New Mexico State can play itself if they win their first games!   Talk about March MADNESS.

leavellme1
leavellme1

Am I missing something here? Does Louisville have two number one seeds?


LeeM
LeeM

Villanova is a 10 seed in both the South and Midwest

John52
John52

Almost impossible to get fired where I work, but if I turned in something like this...Dude, this is your job!

AndyGlockner
AndyGlockner moderator

Guys, there was obviously an issue with how the bracket was posted this AM. It's being fixed. Thanks.

Mike Ridenhour
Mike Ridenhour

What a mess.  Glockner.... did you spend more than 5 minutes on this?

Montana listed twice.   Missouri twice.  Wisconsin twice.  North Carolina twice.  

No Cal.  No New Mexico.  No Pitt.

Shoddy work.



John52
John52

New Mexico State?  What an idiot.

Matt L
Matt L

Also, how is Indiana the only at-large team in bold?  Formatting error?

muser
muser

what a mess  get a clue SI

Matt L
Matt L

This bracket seems pretty half-assed...

JosephJones
JosephJones

Where are my Lobos? Or are not inviting teams to the tournament that win their conference championship?

JohnnyL.Williams1
JohnnyL.Williams1

Also, Albany and Vermont are in this bracket. Albany won the America East conference tournament, not Vermont. Plus it says Albany is from the Big West, whatever that is. What a sloppy edit of this bracket. Hopefully he'll fix it u soon, though it has very little credibility, especially now.

JohnnyL.Williams1
JohnnyL.Williams1

I looked and looked for Akron, which won the MAC tourney, but can't find them. Speaking of the MAC, Ohio was a Sweet 16 team least year, but nary gets a mention as a bubble team this year despite a strong record. 3 of their losses are to Akron. These types of omissions, without even a mention, makes these "bubble masters" very suspect.

Quagmire
Quagmire

Yes! I knew it! Oklahoma State plays itself in the first round, and Boise State gets into two regions at once. I predicted this a week ago.

Sputnik
Sputnik

Your bracket is foolish ....where are The Butler Bulldogs ?

RayHuggyBearYoung
RayHuggyBearYoung

I am just happy to see he has Missouri going in not once but twice!

beatexas123
beatexas123

Wisconsin in there twice - not even as the same seed. VCU in there twice.  Oklahoma State can't play Oklahoma State. Maybe you meant Oklahoma (who is missing), but they can't play them either.

andas
andas

where the hell is Cal?


ClydeM
ClydeM

Michigan's chances might be improved by being in two different regionals, or maybe they'll just get tired faster.

Larry T
Larry T

UNC twice also and no Syracuse...someone celebrated St Patrick's Day...

jhiken24
jhiken24

Uhhh. . . Wisconsin in there twice; no New Mexico; and Louisville your overall number 1 but giving Indiana the Indianapolis Midwest bracket even though it means sending Louisville further away to the Texas (South) bracket.  I don't think so.  Louisville gets the closest (Indianapolis) bracket.

aboehm15
aboehm15

Boise State was entered into both Auburn Hills regions. Oklahoma State drawing themselves in that 5-12 matchup seems a bit harsh. Also, Albany out of the Big West? What are you, some kind of Dane hater?

AndreLuna
AndreLuna

Went through the bracket a few times. Where is New Mexico?

AndyGlockner
AndyGlockner moderator

@aboehm15 Left over from the initial input problems. It should be fixed already. Give it a minute or two and refresh. Thanks.