Posted March 21, 2013

Why Your Team Won’t Win The NCAA Title

March Madness, NCAA Tournament
Going small has benefited the Tar Heels, but Will their March run be cut short? (Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

Going with a small lineup has given North Carolina new life, but the Tar Heels’ flaws will be exposed. (Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

Much of this week will be spent breaking down individual and team matchups and projecting why teams can make deep tournament runs. We’re more pragmatic here at One And One, so it’s easier to diagnose what will ultimately happen based on what teams can’t do. Whether it’s your own red flag or an unfavorable draw, every team but one is going to get got at some point in the next three weeks.

Most cases you don’t have to overthink. One or two sentences generally will suffice, which works great given my omnipresence on Twitter (@AndyGlockner). Without further ado, here’s why your team won’t win the NCAA title, in 140 characters or less.

Every 9-16 seed

It’s never happened before, and even in this crazy season, it’s not happening this year, either. You’re there for a reason (except Oregon).

The 8-seeds

North Carolina
You have no frontcourt, so you resorted to going small. That’s fine, until you run into a good team with size. Like, say, Kansas. #RoyBowl

Pittsburgh
People see you as a potential bracket buster, but you’ve never been to a Final Four and there are several other rugged teams in this region.

North Carolina State
Season-long underachievement may get glossed over with one win. Maybe you even shock IU. You’re not consistent enough to win six.

Colorado State
Rebounding only covers up so many sins. You can’t stop scoring point guards and face one immediately. If you win, you get Louisville.

The 7-seeds

San Diego State
The upside isn’t here. The Aztecs haven’t looked totally right or healthy for most of the season. Not enough shooting or size to threaten.

Creighton
How far can a stud take you if he’s not the point guard? Syracuse won it all in ’03, but the Jays aren’t ‘Cuse even if Doug McDermott is the Bluejays’ Melo.

Notre Dame
Maybe teams will go blind if you bust out the lime aid uniforms in later rounds? Maybe you can have every game start in OT? Nah.

Illinois
On the right night, with a hot Brandon Paul and good three-point shooting, you can beat anyone. No way that happens six straight games.

The 6-seeds

Arizona
Two somewhat erratic combo guards, an inconsistent and young frontcourt and Solomon Hill? And a tough draw? Negative, ghost rider.

UCLA
No size and now no Jordan Adams. The Bruins did very well to win 13 games in the Pac-12 and take the league. That will have to suffice.

Memphis
A mega-version of first-round opponent Saint Mary’s: Rolled through a league, lost to pretty much any good team it faced all season.

Butler
The Bulldogs beat two 1-seeds, so everyone ignores they couldn’t handle the top of the A-10. They still have Brad Stevens. Hmmm … nah, not again.

The 5-seeds

UNLV
Did you watch this team play outside of Thomas & Mack the past two seasons? Lots of talent, not enough cohesion or shot selection.

VCU
Much like last year, the Rams got a bad draw. They must turn you over to win, and Trey Burke and Michigan don’t do it. Then KU on full prep?

Oklahoma State
Great backcourt, which can carry you a long way, but would have to be the second (edit: Sorry, 1985 Villanova!) team to beat six single-digit seeds to win it all. #Oregon

Wisconsin
The Badgers have a good draw for their preferred style. Bo Ryan’s track record of losing to every better seed he sees scares me off, though.

The 4-seeds

Syracuse
The Orange’s 3.5-game run through the Big East Tournament got people believing. Then the final 15 minutes vs. Louisville reminded everyone of the limitations.

Michigan
Certainly talented enough, but the Big Ten seems to have exposed them as having a glass ceiling. Too many tough games, too little D.

Kansas State
They’re always one trash can away from trouble. Too much risk. In the back of every Cat’s mind is a good samaritan dying to help compliance.

Saint Louis
I really like this team. Would have liked them more if Louisville wasn’t in their half. Never undersell emotion, but six Ws may be too much.

The 3-seeds

Florida
The Gators have tried every possible option in close games. Nothing’s worked. I don’t get it either, but they’re not winning six blowouts.

New Mexico
The spotty offense fueled by heavy free throw fuel will get them in trouble against top opponents. The real run could come next season.

Michigan State
The Spartans’ point guard situation isn’t good enough, so their offense isn’t good enough to win six. I never bet against Izzo, but …

Marquette
As noted by the excellent @PaintTouches, the Golden Eagles are ghastly from three-point range and you can’t win a title that way.

The 2-seeds

Georgetown
The closest we have to a Carmelo situation. Otto Porter is great, and he’s fully capable of six great games. But if one or two isn’t …

Ohio State
Definitely can make the Final Four with its draw, but can you win it all with a generally one-note offense? If role players rise up …

Miami
Has the experience and talent to do it, even without much NCAA success prior to this. Terrific coach, but late ACC form makes me leery.

Duke
The Blue Devils may have been my title pick, but they got a horrific draw. If they do it, either the bracket blew up or they’re great.

The 1-seeds

Gonzaga
Excellent team. Frontcourt as good as anything most teams will have. Backcourt has more questions if we’re talking national-title level.

Kansas
Had KU as my pick in November and January. Aside from the TCU debacle, it went exactly as projected. And I bailed because the Jayhawks’ point guards scare me. #regrets?

Indiana
The Hoosiers didn’t get Indy, but maybe that’s a blessing. Few distractions, less pressure. I’m scared off by their penchant for random losses.

Well, I guess that leaves Louisville. Congrats, Cardinals fans. Between a national title and Robert Morris, you’re well on your way to offsetting last season’s bragging rights in the Commonwealth.

Now watch Butler somehow win this thing …

4 comments
Sputnik
Sputnik

GO BULLDOGS and Coach Stevens !!!

Do NOT underestimate THE MAN !!!


JoshMcKay
JoshMcKay

Ducks with back to back "unbelievable upsets" . . . THEN reality.

geoAZ
geoAZ

" I agree, Andy, no one can win the tournament, so we'll go with my bracket..send me the $$$ " Sir Charles Barkley !!